The Phillipine Storm Warning Signals

PSWS # 1

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS: A tropical cyclone will affect the locality. Winds of 30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)

IMPACT OF THE WINDS: Twigs and branches of small trees may be broken. Some banana plants may be tilted or downed. Some houses of very light materials (nipa and cogon) may be partially unroofed. Unless this warning signal is upgraded during the entire existence of the tropical cyclone, only very light or no damage at all may be sustained by the exposed communities. Rice crop, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES: When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level. The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher. The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur. PSWS # 2 METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS: A tropical cyclone will affect the the locality. Winds of greater than 60 kph and up to 100 kph may be expected in at least 24 hours. IMPACT OF THE WINDS: Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken. Few big trees may be uprooted. Many banana plants may be downed. Rice and corn may be adversely affected. Large number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed. Some old galvanized iron roofings may be peeled off. In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES: The sea and coastal waters are dangerous to small seacrafts Special attention should be given to the latest position, the direction and speed of movement and the intensity of the storm as it may intensify and move towards the locality. The general public especially people travelling by sea and air are cautioned to avoid unnecessary risks. Outdoor activities of children should be postponed. Secure properties before the signal is upgraded. Disaster preparedness agencies / organizations are in action to alert their communities. PSWS # 3 METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS: A tropical cyclone will affect the locality. Winds of greater than 100 kph up to 185 kph may be expected in at least 18 hours. IMPACT OF THE WINDS: Many coconut trees may be broken or destroyed. Almost all banana plants may be downed and a large number of trees may be uprooted. Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed and there may be considerable damage to structures of light to medium construction. There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services. In general, moderate to heavy damage may be experienced, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES: The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened/affected. The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all seacrafts. Travel is very risky especially by sea and air. People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas and to stay away from the coasts and river banks. Watch out for the passage of the "eye" of the typhoon indicated by a sudden occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong winds coming gnerally from the north. When the "eye" of the typhoon hit the community do not venture away from the safe shelter because after one to two hours the worst weather will resume with the very strong winds coming from the south. Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety of strong buildings. Disaster preparedness and response agencies/organizations are in action with appropriate response to actual emergency. PSWS # 4 METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS: A very intense typhoon will affect the locality. Very strong winds of more than 185 kph may be expected in at least 12 hours. IMPACT OF THE WINDS: Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage. Many large trees may be uprooted. Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses. Most residential and institutional buildings of mixed construction may be severely damaged. Electrical power distribution and communication services may be severely disrupted. In the overall, damage to affected communities can be very heavy. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES: The situation is potentially very destructive to the community. All travels and outdoor activities should be cancelled. Evacuation to safer shelters should have been completed since it may be too late under this situation. With PSWS #4, the locality is very likely to be hit directly by the eye of the typhoon. As the eye of the typhoon approaches, the weather will continuously worsen with the winds increasing to its strongest coming generally from the north. Then a sudden improvement of the weather with light winds (a lull) will be experienced. This means that the eye of the typhoon is over the locality. This improved weather may last for one to two hours depending on the diameter of the eye and the speed of movement. As the eye moves out of the locality, the worst weather experienced before the lull will suddenly commence. This time the very strong winds will come generally from the south. The disaster coordinating councils concerned and other disaster response organizations are now fully responding to emergencies and in full readiness to immediately respond to possible calamity.

desiderata

Max Ehrmann 


Desiderata 

Go placidly amid the noise and haste,
and remember what peace there may be in silence.
As far as possible without surrender
be on good terms with all persons.
Speak your truth quietly and clearly;
and listen to others,
even the dull and the ignorant;
they too have their story. 

Avoid loud and aggressive persons,
they are vexations to the spirit.
If you compare yourself with others,
you may become vain and bitter;
for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.
Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans. 

Keep interested in your own career, however humble;
it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.
Exercise caution in your business affairs;
for the world is full of trickery.
But let this not blind you to what virtue there is;
many persons strive for high ideals;
and everywhere life is full of heroism. 

Be yourself.

Especially, do not feign affection.
Neither be cynical about love;
for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment
it is as perennial as the grass. 

Take kindly the counsel of the years,
gracefully surrendering the things of youth.

Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune.
But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings.
Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.
Beyond a wholesome discipline,
be gentle with yourself. 

You are a child of the universe,
no less than the trees and the stars;
you have a right to be here.

And whether or not it is clear to you,
no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. 

Therefore be at peace with God,
whatever you conceive Him to be,
and whatever your labors and aspirations,
in the noisy confusion of life keep peace with your soul. 

With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams,
it is still a beautiful world.
Be cheerful.
Strive to be happy. 

Fujiwara Effect

The Fujiwhara effect or Fujiwara interaction, named after Sakuhei Fujiwhara, is a type of interaction between two nearby cyclonic vortices, causing them to appear to "orbit" each other.

When the cyclones approach each other, their centers will begin orbiting cyclonically about a point between the two systems due to their cyclonic wind circulations. The two vortices will be attracted to each other, and eventually spiral into the center point and merge. When the two vortices are of unequal size, the larger vortex will tend to dominate the interaction, and the smaller vortex will orbit around it.

The effect is often mentioned in relation to the motion of tropical cyclones, although the final merging of the two storms is uncommon. The effect becomes pronounced in these storms when they approach within about 1,500 km (900 mi) of each other and are at tropical storm strength or stronger.

The effect is named after Sakuhei Fujiwhara, the Japanese meteorologist who initially described it in a 1921 paper about the motion of vortices in water

The Fujiwara Effect is an interesting phenomenon which can happen when two or more hurricanes form very near each other. In 1921, a Japanese meteorologist named Dr. Sakuhei Fujiwhara determined that two storms will sometimes move around a common center pivot point.

The National Weather Service defines the Fujiwhara Effect as the tendency of two nearby tropical cyclones to rotate cyclonically about each other. Another slightly more technical definition of the Fujiwhara Effect from the National Weather Service is a binary interaction where tropical cyclones within a certain distance (300-750 nautical miles depending on the sizes of the cyclones) of each other begin to rotate about a common midpoint. The effect is also known as the Fujiwara Effect without an ‘h’ in the name. USAToday provides an excellent graphic explaining theFujiwhara Effect.

Fujiwhara’s studies indicate storms will rotate around a common center of mass. A similar effect is seen in the rotation of the Earth and moon. This barycenter is the center pivot point around which two rotating bodies in space will spin. The specific location of this center of gravity is determined by the relative intensity of the tropical storms. This interaction will sometimes lead to tropical storms 'dancing' with each other around the dance floor of the ocean.

Tropical Cyclone

A tropical cyclone is a storm system characterized by a low-pressure center and numerous thunderstorms that produce strong winds and heavy rain. Tropical cyclones strengthen when water evaporated from the ocean is released as the saturated air rises, resulting incondensation of water vapor contained in the moist air. They are fueled by a different heat mechanism than other cyclonic windstorms such as nor'easters, European windstorms, and polar lows. The characteristic that separates tropical cyclones from other cyclonic systems is that at any height in the atmosphere, the center of a tropical cyclone will be warmer than its surroundings; a phenomenon called "warm core" storm systems.

The term "tropical" refers both to the geographical origin of these systems, which usually form in tropical regions of the globe, and to their formation in maritime tropical air masses. The term "cyclone" refers to such storms' cyclonic nature, with counterclockwise wind flow in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise wind flow in the Southern Hemisphere. The opposite direction of the wind flow is a result of the Coriolis force. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by names such as hurricane, typhoon, tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, and simply cyclone.

While tropical cyclones can produce extremely powerful winds and torrential rain, they are also able to produce high waves, damaging storm surge, and tornadoes. They develop over large bodies of warm water, and lose their strength if they move over land due to increased surface friction and loss of the warm ocean as an energy source. This is why coastal regions can receive significant damage from a tropical cyclone, while inland regions are relatively safe from receiving strong winds. Heavy rains, however, can produce significant flooding inland, and storm surges can produce extensive coastal flooding up to 40 kilometres (25 mi) from the coastline. Although their effects on human populations can be devastating, tropical cyclones can relieve drought conditions. They also carry heat energy away from the tropics and transport it toward temperate latitudes, which makes them an important part of the global atmospheric circulation mechanism. As a result, tropical cyclones help to maintain equilibrium in the Earth's troposphere, and to maintain a relatively stable and warm temperature worldwide.

Many tropical cyclones develop when the atmospheric conditions around a weak disturbance in the atmosphere are favorable. The background environment is modulated by climatological cycles and patterns such as the Madden-Julian oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Others form when other types of cyclones acquire tropical characteristics. Tropical systems are then moved by steering winds in the troposphere; if the conditions remain favorable, the tropical disturbance intensifies, and can even develop an eye. On the other end of the spectrum, if the conditions around the system deteriorate or the tropical cyclone makes landfall, the system weakens and eventually dissipates. It is not possible to artificially induce the dissipation of these systems with current technology.

A tropical cyclone is composed of a system of thunderstorms that shows a cyclonic rotation around a central core or eye. A tropical cyclone is a generic term for a storm with an organized system of thunderstorms that are not based on a frontal system.

Each individual tropical cyclone differs, but several characteristics are common to most all tropical cyclones including a central low-pressure zone and high wind speeds of at least 34 knots. At this point, the storms are given a pre-determined storm name. Most storms are accompanied by a lot of rain and storm surges near the shore. Often, once the storms make landfall, the tropical cyclone can cause tornadoes.

A tropical cyclone needs warm ocean temperatures in order to form. Temperatures in the ocean need to be at least 82 degrees Fahrenheit in order to form. Heat is drawn up from the oceans creating what is popularly called a 'heat engine'. Tall convective towers of clouds are formed within the storm as warm ocean water evaporates. As the air rises higher it cools and condenses releasing latent heat which causes even more clouds to form and feed the storm.

Rotation and Forward Speed

The rotation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere is counter-clockwise due to theCoriolis Effect. The opposite is true in the Southern Hemisphere.

The forward speed of a tropical cyclone can be a factor in determining the amount of damage the storm will cause. If a storm remains over one area for a long period of time, torrential rains, high winds, and flooding can severely impact an area. The average forward speed of a tropical cyclone is dependent on the latitude where the storm is currently. Generally, at less than 30 degrees of latitude, the storms will move at about 20 mph on average. The closer the storm is located the the equator, the slower the movement. Some storms will even stall out over an area for an extended period of time. After about 35 degrees North latitude, the storms start to pick up speed.

A good example of the fast formation of tropical cyclones comes when several storms stack up in the ocean back-to-back. Such an example occurred in 2009 with the formation of Ana, Bill, and Claudette as seen in this satellite image. The storms were very close to one another. Storms can also become entangle with one another in a process known as the Fujiwhara Effect where tropical cyclones can interact with each other.

Naming Tropical Cyclones

In the Atlantic Ocean and Eastern Pacific, tropical cyclones are known as hurricanes. In the Western Pacific Ocean, tropical cyclones are known as typhoons. In the Indian Ocean, a tropical cyclone is called a cyclone. These names are described in the article – Is it a typhoon, a cyclone, or a hurricane?

Specific storm names in each of the ocean basins vary based on conventional naming practices. For instance, in the Atlantic Ocean, storms are given names based on an alphabetical pre-determined list of Atlantic hurricane names. Severe hurricanes names are 

Tropical Depression

A tropical depression is designated when the first appearance of a lowered pressure and organized circulation in the center of the thunderstorm complex occurs. A surface pressure chart will reveal at least one closed isobar to reflect this lowering.

A Tropical depression is a tropical mass of thunderstorms with a cyclonic wind circulation between 20 and 34 knots.

LA NINA 

La Niña is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is the counterpart of El Niño as part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern. During a period of La Niña, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 3–5 °C. In the United States, an episode of La Niña is defined as a period of at least 5 months of La Niña conditions. The name La Niña originates from Spanish, meaning "the girl," analogous to El Niño meaning "the boy."

La Niña, sometimes informally called "anti-El Niño", is the opposite of El Niño, where the latter corresponds instead to a higher sea surface temperature by a deviation of at least 0.5 °C, and its effects are often the reverse of those of El Niño. El Niño is famous due to its potentially catastrophic impact on the weather along both the Chilean, Peruvian, New Zealand, and Australian coasts, among others. It has extensive effects on the weather in North America, even affecting the Atlantic Hurricane Season. La Niña is often, though not always, preceded by an El Niño.

Effects?

The results of La Niña are mostly the opposite of those of El Niño; for example, El Niño would cause a dry period in the Midwestern U.S., while La Niña would typically cause a wet period in that area. La Niña often causes drought conditions in the western Pacific; flooding in northern South America; mild wet summers in northern North America, and drought in the southeastern United States.

EL NINO

The El Niño phenomenon is an abnormal weather pattern caused by the warming of the Pacific Ocean. It is characterized by extreme climatic changes - world-warming along South America, torrential rains in North America, extreme temperature rise and drought in Southeast Asia and Australia. El Niño occurs every two to seven years.

El Niño is Spanish for "the boy" and refers to the Christ child, because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is usually noticed around Christmas. "La Niña," on the other hand, is Spanish for "the girl." El Nino is also known as the southern oscillation.

El Niño phenomena dramatically affects the weather throughout the world. Among other weather anomalies, El Niño events are responsible for:

•       A shift of thunderstorm activity eastward from Indonesia to the south Pacific, which leads to abnormally dry conditions and severe droughts during both warm and cold seasons in Australia, the Philippines, Indonesia, southeastern Africa and Brazil.
•       During the summer season the Indian monsoon is less intensive than normal and therefore it is much less rainy than usual in India.
•       Much wetter conditions at the west coast of tropical South America.
•       El Niño impacts on the United States, North America and the Atlantic regions include:
•       Wetter than the normal conditions in tropical latitudes of North America, from Texas to Florida, including more intensive wintertime storms.
•       Extreme rainfall and flooding events in California, Oregon and Washington.
•       Much milder winters and late autumns in northwestern Canada and Alaska due to pumping of abnormally warm air by mid-latitude low pressure systems.
•       Below normal hurricane/tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic (however, their strength is not limited by El Niño).
•     Drier than normal North American monsoons, especially for Mexico, Arizona and New Mexico.
•       Drier than normal autumns and winters in the U.S. Pacific Northwest.

What Causes El Niño?

The warming of the Pacific occurs as a result of the weakening of trade winds that normally blow westward from South America toward Asia.

Global Wind Patterns: wind belts of the general circulation

The global wind pattern is also known as the "general circulation," and the surface winds of each hemisphere are divided into three wind belts:

Polar Easterlies: From 60-90 degrees latitude.

Prevailing Westerlies: From 30-60 degrees latitude (aka Westerlies).

Tropical Easterlies: From 0-30 degrees latitude (aka Trade Winds).